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 Night owl posting,Subie driving, backpacking Dad who is perpetually trying to catch up to his kids on the trail.
Vancouver, BC
Canada
3055 Posts |
Posted - 01/29/2012 : 11:32 PM
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| I just did some quick checking and current indications are that La Nina conditions strengthened in January and are probably going to persist into April if not longer |
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681 Posts |
Posted - 01/30/2012 : 09:16 AM
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| Does that mean warmer or colder? |
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Vancouver, BC
Canada
874 Posts |
Posted - 01/30/2012 : 09:34 AM
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| AFAIK, el nina and el nino events do not correlate with temperature. They predict precipitation only. |
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Burnaby, BC
Canada
1297 Posts |
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Night owl posting,Subie driving, backpacking Dad who is perpetually trying to catch up to his kids on the trail.
Vancouver, BC
Canada
3055 Posts |
Posted - 01/30/2012 : 11:19 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by mrultralite
Does that mean warmer or colder?
Depends where you are. US PacNW and BC SW generally see lower temps and higher precip which is why local ski hills get excited by any suggestion of La Nina conditions |
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681 Posts |
Posted - 01/31/2012 : 09:27 AM
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''on average La Niña winters are warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest. ''
I think its a crock, they were predicting a colder winter,,,, nope. What we do see is predicted by GW ; snow at elevation , then at progressively higher elevations. |
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Burnaby, BC
Canada
1297 Posts |
Posted - 01/31/2012 : 09:49 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by mrultralite
What we do see is predicted by GW ; snow at elevation , then at progressively higher elevations.
ENSO cycles are too short for that.
Jury's still out on how ENSO cycles themselves would be affected by Global Warming. |
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Vancouver, BC
Canada
874 Posts |
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Burnaby, BC
Canada
1297 Posts |
Posted - 01/31/2012 : 6:04 PM
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Here's the Environment Canada Forecast site:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html
You can see how the weather prediction evolved over the past two months.
Colder and wetter in SWBC as predicted, but drier and warmer than predicted East and South. |
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Hope, BC
Canada
7098 Posts |
Posted - 01/31/2012 : 7:30 PM
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| I don't believe any of these theories, I just check my Farmers Almanac. |
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681 Posts |
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Outward Bound author of the Seinfeld Thread, who builds his own snowshoes
Troy, MT
USA
3125 Posts |
Posted - 01/31/2012 : 8:56 PM
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| The reason this winter has been crap as far as snow goes is that everyone and their dog was talking about how it was going to be the biggest winter ever back in september. 1st rule of storm forecasts is you don't talk about the storm forecast. Now delete this thread before you ruin the rest of winter. |
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Night owl posting,Subie driving, backpacking Dad who is perpetually trying to catch up to his kids on the trail.
Vancouver, BC
Canada
3055 Posts |
Posted - 02/01/2012 : 12:05 AM
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For those who read the analysis as opposed to garbled misinterpretations in the general media, this Winter's La Nina was never measured or projected as a major or particularly strong La Nina. What is currently anticipated is at most a moderate La Nina.
That said 240 cm base at Whistler at the end of January is hardly a snow drought. The alpine has filled in very nicely. Maybe it won't persist until September but still looking good for the ski season. |
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Outward Bound author of the Seinfeld Thread, who builds his own snowshoes
Troy, MT
USA
3125 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2012 : 06:59 AM
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| Maybe in BC. A lot of MT has almost no snowpack this year. I would call that a snow drought. |
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Kootenay Bud
2695 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2012 : 07:32 AM
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| California and Utah also have just about record low snowpacks, hence all the recent fatalities. |
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Edmonton, Alberta
Canada
797 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2012 : 09:55 AM
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I read about one snow study plot in central BC somewhere that broke it's previous record for deepest january snow pack. So it can't be all bad.
I'm going skiing at Trophy Cabin in Wells Gray next week...I'll let you know how terrible it is ;)
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Burnaby, BC
Canada
1297 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2012 : 10:00 AM
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Pretty wicked how this year the jet stream seems to be pinned over Oregon, hooking North over Idaho.
A mild La Niña doesn't necessarily translate to a mild winter, unfortunately.
Sucks to have no winter - current NOAA weekly update still predicts dry and no cold temp anomalies for much of MT, UT or CA the coming months.
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877 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2012 : 10:07 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by booewen
I'm going skiing at Trophy Cabin in Wells Gray next week...I'll let you know how terrible it is ;)
I'm also going there later in February for a week and would love to see one of your videos... |
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136 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2012 : 10:15 AM
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Real-time snow levels can be found on the BC River Forecast Centre website http://bcrfc.env.gov.bc.ca/data/asp/realtime/index.htm.
Many stations show normal or above normal right now. If you compare with the average make sure to take into account for how many years the station has been collecting data (not so 'average' if its been only a few years). |
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136 Posts |
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Burnaby, BC
Canada
1297 Posts |
Posted - 02/16/2012 : 10:01 AM
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Jet stream went North and still won't come back.
Running out of time here - ENSO predicted to dissipate Mar-Apr-May... |
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Topic |
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La Nina continues
