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 La Nina continues
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ChuckLW
Advanced Member

Night owl posting,Subie driving, backpacking Dad who is perpetually trying to catch up to his kids on the trail.

Vancouver, BC
Canada

3149 Posts

 Posted - 01/29/2012 :  11:32 PM  Show Profile  Reply to this posting
I just did some quick checking and current indications are that La Nina conditions strengthened in January and are probably going to persist into April if not longer

mrultralite
Intermediate Member



692 Posts

 Posted - 01/30/2012 :  09:16 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Does that mean warmer or colder?

weedWhacker
Intermediate Member


Vancouver, BC
Canada

886 Posts

 Posted - 01/30/2012 :  09:34 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
AFAIK, el nina and el nino events do not correlate with temperature. They predict precipitation only.

tu
Senior Member


Burnaby, BC
Canada

1715 Posts

 Posted - 01/30/2012 :  09:42 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
NOAA site is a good one for info:

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html

They have frequent periodic updates for ENSO prediction there.
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ChuckLW
Advanced Member

Night owl posting,Subie driving, backpacking Dad who is perpetually trying to catch up to his kids on the trail.

Vancouver, BC
Canada

3149 Posts

 Posted - 01/30/2012 :  11:19 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by mrultralite

Does that mean warmer or colder?



Depends where you are. US PacNW and BC SW generally see lower temps and higher precip which is why local ski hills get excited by any suggestion of La Nina conditions

mrultralite
Intermediate Member



692 Posts

 Posted - 01/31/2012 :  09:27 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
''on average La Niña winters are warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest. ''

I think its a crock, they were predicting a colder winter,,,, nope. What we do see is predicted by GW ; snow at elevation , then at progressively higher elevations.

tu
Senior Member


Burnaby, BC
Canada

1715 Posts

 Posted - 01/31/2012 :  09:49 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by mrultralite
What we do see is predicted by GW ; snow at elevation , then at progressively higher elevations.


ENSO cycles are too short for that.

Jury's still out on how ENSO cycles themselves would be affected by Global Warming.

weedWhacker
Intermediate Member


Vancouver, BC
Canada

886 Posts

 Posted - 01/31/2012 :  5:49 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Or, you could just flip a coin ...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2012/01/31/mb-weather-warmer-prairies-manitoba.html?cmp=rss

tu
Senior Member


Burnaby, BC
Canada

1715 Posts

 Posted - 01/31/2012 :  6:04 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Here's the Environment Canada Forecast site:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html

You can see how the weather prediction evolved over the past two months.

Colder and wetter in SWBC as predicted, but drier and warmer than predicted East and South.
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AcesHigh
Advanced Member


Chilliwack, BC
Canada

7502 Posts

 Posted - 01/31/2012 :  7:30 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I don't believe any of these theories, I just check my Farmers Almanac.

mrultralite
Intermediate Member



692 Posts

 Posted - 01/31/2012 :  7:41 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote


from
http://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=98231106-1

With below normal atmospheric pressure, most of western Canada experiences below normal winter temperatures.



so forecast next week ,12c ,snows gone here. 1 week of winter
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Farmer
Advanced Member

Outward Bound author of the Seinfeld Thread, who builds his own snowshoes

Troy, MT
USA

3285 Posts

 Posted - 01/31/2012 :  8:56 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The reason this winter has been crap as far as snow goes is that everyone and their dog was talking about how it was going to be the biggest winter ever back in september. 1st rule of storm forecasts is you don't talk about the storm forecast. Now delete this thread before you ruin the rest of winter.
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ChuckLW
Advanced Member

Night owl posting,Subie driving, backpacking Dad who is perpetually trying to catch up to his kids on the trail.

Vancouver, BC
Canada

3149 Posts

 Posted - 02/01/2012 :  12:05 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
For those who read the analysis as opposed to garbled misinterpretations in the general media, this Winter's La Nina was never measured or projected as a major or particularly strong La Nina. What is currently anticipated is at most a moderate La Nina.

That said 240 cm base at Whistler at the end of January is hardly a snow drought. The alpine has filled in very nicely. Maybe it won't persist until September but still looking good for the ski season.
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Farmer
Advanced Member

Outward Bound author of the Seinfeld Thread, who builds his own snowshoes

Troy, MT
USA

3285 Posts

 Posted - 02/02/2012 :  06:59 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Maybe in BC. A lot of MT has almost no snowpack this year. I would call that a snow drought.

sandy
Advanced Member

Kootenay Bud


2810 Posts

 Posted - 02/02/2012 :  07:32 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
California and Utah also have just about record low snowpacks, hence all the recent fatalities.

booewen
Intermediate Member


Edmonton, Alberta
Canada

829 Posts

 Posted - 02/02/2012 :  09:55 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I read about one snow study plot in central BC somewhere that broke it's previous record for deepest january snow pack. So it can't be all bad.

I'm going skiing at Trophy Cabin in Wells Gray next week...I'll let you know how terrible it is ;)

tu
Senior Member


Burnaby, BC
Canada

1715 Posts

 Posted - 02/02/2012 :  10:00 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Pretty wicked how this year the jet stream seems to be pinned over Oregon, hooking North over Idaho.

A mild La Niña doesn't necessarily translate to a mild winter, unfortunately.

Sucks to have no winter - current NOAA weekly update still predicts dry and no cold temp anomalies for much of MT, UT or CA the coming months.

dav1481
Intermediate Member



941 Posts

 Posted - 02/02/2012 :  10:07 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by booewen

I'm going skiing at Trophy Cabin in Wells Gray next week...I'll let you know how terrible it is ;)



I'm also going there later in February for a week and would love to see one of your videos...

ClauS
Junior Member



201 Posts

 Posted - 02/02/2012 :  10:15 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Real-time snow levels can be found on the BC River Forecast Centre website http://bcrfc.env.gov.bc.ca/data/asp/realtime/index.htm.
Many stations show normal or above normal right now. If you compare with the average make sure to take into account for how many years the station has been collecting data (not so 'average' if its been only a few years).

ClauS
Junior Member



201 Posts

 Posted - 02/02/2012 :  10:19 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Good discussion and some background science about La Nina on Cliff Mass' blog
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/01/wayward-la-nina.html

tu
Senior Member


Burnaby, BC
Canada

1715 Posts

 Posted - 02/16/2012 :  10:01 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Jet stream went North and still won't come back.

Running out of time here - ENSO predicted to dissipate Mar-Apr-May...
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