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 canine loving, machete-toting bushwhacking lake seeker, Indiana Jones hat-wearing off-road 4x4 guru
Surrey Hole, BC
Canada
6768 Posts |
Posted - 11/21/2011 : 5:35 PM
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Browsing through the local forecasts shows a considerable rise in temps in the Alpine, with above 2000m freezing levels in some areas. Combined with heavy snowfall lately, this will certainly create slide and avalanche hazards even in simpler terrain. Take extra care  |
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Happy go lucky, plaid wearin, postholin, safeway gaitor sportin, old-school film shootin, giver of many regards
Abbotsford, B.C.
Canada
13441 Posts |
Posted - 11/21/2011 : 6:27 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Aqua Terra
Browsing through the local forecasts shows a considerable rise in temps in the Alpine, with above 2000m freezing levels in some areas. Combined with heavy snowfall lately, this will certainly create slide and avalanche hazards even in simpler terrain. Take extra care
Glad I got out this weekend to enjoy the sun and the snow.
K |
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canine loving, machete-toting bushwhacking lake seeker, Indiana Jones hat-wearing off-road 4x4 guru
Surrey Hole, BC
Canada
6768 Posts |
Posted - 11/23/2011 : 08:19 AM
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| Official extra avalanche advisaries and partial road closures are in now effect. Likely going to be really unstable for some time. |
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canine loving, machete-toting bushwhacking lake seeker, Indiana Jones hat-wearing off-road 4x4 guru
Surrey Hole, BC
Canada
6768 Posts |
Posted - 11/26/2011 : 5:28 PM
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Looks like forecast high freezing levels were correct, sloppy mess up on the local ski hills.
Freezing levels to drop, and then shoot past 2500m later next week.
This cant be good at all 
Its still early in the year, but that crust will be considerable factor for many months. |
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Squamish, BC
Canada
70 Posts |
Posted - 11/27/2011 : 08:47 AM
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| I was wondering if we were going to get a November raincrust this year. Woo Hoo. :( |
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 | Dru
Mountain Grammar Police
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Sardonic sandbagging scoundrel, Cascade Climbers lobotomized spraymeister, space blanket flyer, new millennium vulgarian betaboy and friend to all squids
Climbing, a mountain
Canada
∞ Posts |
Posted - 11/27/2011 : 10:05 AM
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from MCR this morning:
quote:
Hello All,
Just a heads up: we are hearing reports of large avalanches reaching low elevation roads in the Sea to Sky country. Some of these slides are starting well below treeline. Know what is above you if you plan to head out on the Forrest Service Roads.
Cheers,
Conny Amelunxen
MG
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Satirical photoshop junkie who frolics in the mountains of the Chilliwack River Valley
Chilliwack, BC
Canada
6895 Posts |
Posted - 11/27/2011 : 11:31 AM
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| Pouring rain on the Coq this morning to Merritt. Fresh snow on the connector from just before Elkhart down to Brenda Mine. |
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canine loving, machete-toting bushwhacking lake seeker, Indiana Jones hat-wearing off-road 4x4 guru
Surrey Hole, BC
Canada
6768 Posts |
Posted - 11/29/2011 : 7:46 PM
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Freezing levels all over the place this week.
Its especially worth noting that it will shoot above 3000m for the weekend of DEC 3/4 even though weather looks partially clear/sunny skies.
Again, with recent snowfall this will be recipe to avoid in many areas.
No, I am not an expert, but some of this cycle is a bit unusual. |
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Happy go lucky, plaid wearin, postholin, safeway gaitor sportin, old-school film shootin, giver of many regards
Abbotsford, B.C.
Canada
13441 Posts |
Posted - 11/29/2011 : 8:31 PM
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Those are some pretty wild swings in the freezing level.
K |
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Vancouver, BC
Canada
1461 Posts |
Posted - 11/29/2011 : 9:14 PM
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Rain events after the first big snowfall seem to happen every year. There is also often a surface hoar layer that causes problems. The odd thing this year is the sheer volume of snow that fell right off the bat with such a low freezing level. The amount of snow left from last year is also relatively large compared to recent years.
Hopefully some warm temps can do its thing and heal up the snowpack a bit but that surface hoar layer could be a cause for worry for a while since it's so deep now. Lots of interesting layers in the snowpack from the pit photos and descriptions I've seen. Haven't actually been out in the snow yet myself. |
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canine loving, machete-toting bushwhacking lake seeker, Indiana Jones hat-wearing off-road 4x4 guru
Surrey Hole, BC
Canada
6768 Posts |
Posted - 11/29/2011 : 9:36 PM
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U gonna wait until NYE to see the white stuff?  |
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Satirical photoshop junkie who frolics in the mountains of the Chilliwack River Valley
Chilliwack, BC
Canada
6895 Posts |
Posted - 11/29/2011 : 9:37 PM
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| Was snowing at the Elk Mtn trailhead this afternoon (650m) and snowing heavily at the first lookout. I guessed the freezing level to be around 1000m judging from the ice on the trail. |
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canine loving, machete-toting bushwhacking lake seeker, Indiana Jones hat-wearing off-road 4x4 guru
Surrey Hole, BC
Canada
6768 Posts |
Posted - 11/29/2011 : 9:46 PM
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| that should be about right, but a huge rise, well above all our local mountains is coming, kinda weird to have it go past 3000m |
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Vancouver, BC
Canada
1461 Posts |
Posted - 11/29/2011 : 10:19 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Aqua Terra
U gonna wait until NYE to see the white stuff?
Could be...
NOT! |
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| Dru
Mountain Grammar Police
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Sardonic sandbagging scoundrel, Cascade Climbers lobotomized spraymeister, space blanket flyer, new millennium vulgarian betaboy and friend to all squids
Climbing, a mountain
Canada
∞ Posts |
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Vancouver, BC
Canada
874 Posts |
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| Dru
Mountain Grammar Police
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Sardonic sandbagging scoundrel, Cascade Climbers lobotomized spraymeister, space blanket flyer, new millennium vulgarian betaboy and friend to all squids
Climbing, a mountain
Canada
∞ Posts |
Posted - 11/30/2011 : 11:06 AM
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| We'll see, but I doubt it. |
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vancouver, bc
Canada
987 Posts |
Posted - 11/30/2011 : 11:55 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by weedWhacker
3500 meters predicted for Monday in Lions Bay.
http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/The-Lions-East-Peak/forecasts/1000
Weedwacker, this is not real weather information. This site is made by the same guys that do snow-forecast.com another notoriously inaccurate weather site.
Both these sites are made up of an IT department and a bunch servers and is run entirely out of the UK. Their weather forecasts are simple logarithms based off seemingly poor information. I cannot tell you how many times this forecasts have been incredibly inaccurate be it freezing levels, amount of precip, total snow etc. etc. Do yourself a favour and compare these forecasts to local weather forecasts that are created by actual meteorologists. Honestly snow-forecast.com is a huge joke. Go ahead and tell them you're feedback, hope you get free international calling...
Contact By Phone:
If you need to discuss something in person, please leave a message on the number below and we will get back to you:
UK: Tel: +44 (0)845 834 0393
Our Address:
Snow-Forecast.com Ltd. Head Office:
Unit 1, Link Trade Park, Penarth Road, Cardiff, CF11 8TQ UK
Here is their caveat right smack dab on the home page:
While this information may be indispensable in planning your ascent, please treat it critically and verify against other sources. Our weather algorithms are thoroughly tested and proven to work well for thousands of mountain ski resorts and surf breaks; however, the database of mountain locations may contain errors at this early stage. Please send your feedback – it will be crucial for ironing out bugs and expanding the forecast coverage.
The fact is a logarithm based on limited information and no human intervention = a very unreliable forecast. I used to use it, until I found that not only was it wrong almost always, but that it was so out to lunch compared to local weather sources and almost never came close to what the weather ended up being.
You should see the discrepancy when there is an inversion forecast. Real weather might be, 0c at the peak of Whistler and -2c at the base. Whereas snow-forecast.com will be show it to be -12c at the peak, its laughable!
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Edited by - splitboarder on 11/30/2011 12:03 PM |
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vancouver, bc
Canada
987 Posts |
Posted - 11/30/2011 : 11:57 AM
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| I was wondering where the heck you were getting your 2500m+ freezing level info from. Now that I know, I'm stoked, because it sure as hell isn't going to get that warm. You were duped my friend. |
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Vancouver, BC
Canada
1009 Posts |
Posted - 11/30/2011 : 12:24 PM
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Its worth investigating why a computer model would pump out something like that though...
High pressure, winter, cold air in valleys, sometimes those sites are good at giving hints.
To find inversions you need a graph that can you show you more than one 0c line.
A forecasted sounding works well for this
Here is Saturday morning at YVR
this image will probably change at 4pm today
also you can see where the two lines nearly touch is the height of any fog that may form
Following the red line (T) it cools with height and crosses 0c at 950mb (near surface) then begins to warm and stays above 0c till around 800mb which is approx 2000m
Which more or less agrees with the posters link for sat morning and more or less agrees with what WB is forecasting
3500m seems high...96 hours away though so worth watching.
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Edited by - J Mace on 11/30/2011 12:27 PM |
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canine loving, machete-toting bushwhacking lake seeker, Indiana Jones hat-wearing off-road 4x4 guru
Surrey Hole, BC
Canada
6768 Posts |
Posted - 11/30/2011 : 12:47 PM
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| since we have no temp recordings up high , beside the local ski hills which are well below 2000m , how can such a high freezing level be confirmed? Fly around with an airplane? |
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Freezing levels rising for NOV26
